Jetzt wird's kritisch Leute: Die kubanische Regierung plant Zwangsmassnahmen zur Energieeinsparung, sobald es in Irak knallt und der Ölpreis durch die Decke geht! (Artikel Chicage Tribune vom 27.09.02)
HAVANA, Sep 27, 2002 (Chicago Tribune - Knight Ridder/Tribune News Service via COMTEX) -- With a slumping economy that is dependent on imported oil, Cuba is preparing for possible supply disruptions as a result of any attack on Iraq that could spark a return to chronic blackouts, frequent cuts in the water supply and even less fuel for transportation and farm equipment.
Cuban President Fidel Castro warned in a speech earlier this month that war in Iraq could significantly boost oil prices and force the country to adopt emergency measures.
Officials have taken steps to reduce energy consumption and oil imports. Some factories were temporarily closed during the summer, state employees' workweeks were cut to 30 hours, and even some elevators in government buildings were shut down, according to diplomats.
"Saving fuel and all resources is one of the steps that we need to take in this country, given the current economic situation," said Carlos Lage, Cuba's top economic official.
At the same time, Cuba has teamed up with foreign companies to significantly boost oil and gas production, though the country still imports about half the crude oil it consumes. Cuba spent $1 billion last year to purchase imported oil.
"Oil is the proverbial Achilles Heel of the Cuban economy," said John Kavulich, president of U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council. "Cuba is dependent on imported oil to meet its minimum energy requirements."
After the Soviet bloc collapsed, bringing to an end $6 billion in annual subsidies and cut-rate oil prices, Cuban factories were forced to slow production, 24-hour blackouts were ordered in major cities, and cars, buses and tractors all but disappeared. Even today, power outages are not uncommon.
Although oil prices doubled during the 1991 Persian Gulf war, experts say it's unlikely prices would rise that much in the event of another conflict in Iraq.
The world economy is much less reliant on Iraqi oil today than a decade ago, and a cutoff in its production could easily be made up by other nations, experts say. Still, oil prices since March have shot up from $18 a barrel to about $30 a barrel.
John Felmy, chief economist at the American Petroleum Institute, said the increases have been triggered by a spike in demand coupled with a decrease in Iraqi production and a general "nervousness in the market" in anticipation of a possible war against Iraq.
"There is probably a war premium," he said.
In the past decade, Cuba, with companies from Canada, France and other nations, has spent $2.4 billion to modernize its oil and gas production facilities along with updating its thermo-electric and other power plants.
Oil production, which is concentrated along the country's northern coast, has increased sevenfold and, by the end of 2002, between 80 and 90 percent of Cuba's electricity will be produced by domestic oil and gas, according to Cuban officials and government reports.
But Cuba produces only heavy crude oil, which must be mixed with lighter, imported crude to be refined into gasoline and other fuel.
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By Gary Marx
Chicago Tribune
