Truth about Cuba's economy lies in middle

Last February, Fidel Castro proudly stated that Cuba is recovering from the ashes of its post-Soviet economic recession and "rising again like the phoenix." Conversely, U.S. Interests Section Chief James Cason recently said that the island is facing severe economic problems and that Castro's government "is on its last legs."

What is the truth about the current status of Cuba's economy?

The economic situation in Cuba is not as bad as U.S. officials would have us believe. The country's economy grew 3 percent in 2004, mainly thanks to a substantial increase in revenues from tourism and nickel exports, rose by approximately 6 percent in the first half of 2005, and is expected to end the year with a 5 percent growth.

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But Cuba's economy is not even as good as Havana's authorities proclaimed. Leaving aside the frequent blackouts that have plagued the entire island in recent months, the reality is that the latest progress at the macroeconomic level has not yet translated into tangible benefits for the Cuban population. While the Castro government is trying to address some major deficiencies of its economic system, three chronic problems remain unresolved in Cuba: availability of food and other basic products, the construction of new houses and the reparation of existing ones, and the very precarious condition of the public transportation sector.

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Between 2000 and 2004, the number of new houses built annually by the Cuban government dropped about 65 percent. Last year's number was the lowest since 1990, even lower than the annual average of new homes completed between 1991 and 1993, during the worst time of the economic recession in Cuba. Regarding public transportation, the total number of passengers transported each year by bus and taxi plummeted by about 80 percent between 1990 and 1998, with a small improvement since then. In 2003, however, the volume of passengers was the same as in 1963, when the Cuban population stood at just 7.4 million, almost 4 million less than its current size.

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Paolo Spadoni is a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Political Science at the University of Florida. He wrote this commentary for the Orlando Sentinel.